Modeling and Simulation Impacts on Society and the Ethical Dilemmas They Create

by Dirk L. Kettenis, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Dik.Kettenis@USERS.INFO.WAU.NL

With politicians and decision makers increasingly relying on modeling and simulation, the discipline is exerting an increasing impact on society and environment (see for example, "I2 Slumps With Nike Shortfall Warning" (02/27/01, 12:07 p.m. ET) Reuters www.techweb.com). With increasing frequency, M&S is brought to bear on issues which involve conflicting interests. For example, expanding an airfield will have a positive impact on the economy of the surrounding area. On the other hand, such expansion may have a negative impact on the health of the people living in that area. With significant economical interests at play, M&S professionals may be under pressure to manipulate the results in favor of one or more of the stakeholders. In this way, ethical issues enter the scene of the M&S discipline. One key issue is whether the models in use today are accurate enough to justify important decisions that are based upon them. A case in point is the unnecessary and costly evacuation that took place in 1999 as a result of path prediction models of hurricane Floyd. Other ethical issues and the need for a code of ethics for the emerging M&S profession, are discussed in the special issue on ethics, TRANSACTIONS, December 2000, dedicated to Maurice Elzas, a long-time contributor to the M&S tools and methodology. For more information, visit www.scs.org.